horse system
Can You Be A Horse Race Handicapper?
horse system - I have spent some amount of time looking into using a horse race system to bet properly and rise above the rest of the race bettors by using the art of handicapping. Let me tell you what I discovered.
You can't do it.
horse system - The level of information required to really excel in understanding horse system play is monumental. Beyond that, much of the information is 'proprietary' or at the very least, not available without insider connections.
Here are some of the things that the pros look at when they are using handicapping to decide horse system wagers:
Workouts are the second most important gauge of a horse's ability. Past performances indicate a horse's basic ability. Recent workouts are an indication of a horse's current form. How did the horse do in the last three workouts? This has a HUGE effect on your horse system decisions.
One way to gauge if a horse will like the turf is to see if the horse ever ran on a wet dirt track (Good, Muddy, or Sloppy). If the horse ran significantly better on the off track than a Fast track, the horse may take well to the turf. Whether dirt or turf, was it wet or dry? Again, this has a big affect on beting for the horse system player.
Something to watch for are horses dropping in class. Horses that are significantly dropping in class from their last races, are usually a threat. The class comparison is based on the horse's last race on the SAME surface as the current race. Did your horse recently drop in class? How many races since then? Making bet choices without this knowledge will cost you.
Exotic wagers such as Pick 4s, Pick 6s and Superfectas usually require a significantly higher cost to hit the bet. Eliminating one or two horses from your combinations when deciding horse system lays in order to save a couple of bucks can cost hundreds, even thousands of dollars in lost winnings. Is your caution or fear stopping you from profiting big?
There are essentially two kinds of medication given to thoroughbreds. Certain meds are only legal on some tracks (typically on the West Coast). A horse either needs it to run well, or can't run at all with it. By looking at a horse's past performances, you can tell if they run better with or without. Do you know if your horse is on or recently changed medications? The medicine information can easily change your wagering decisions.
If a horse's last race was coming off a layoff, the horse is bound to improve this time out. The first new race was "needed" and will not usually be a good indicator of true ability. However, the importance of layoffs varies from track to track. How long was the layoff? Is this the first race since then? Do you know the horse system decision to make if it is?
It always amazed me that most handicappers never take track condition into consideration. This is a HUGE factor. Similar to the dirt vs. turf issue, some horses prefer a dry track while others prefer a wet track. This applies on the dirt as well as on the turf and this info will help to put your system to the best use. Have you checked past performance on all the possible surfaces?
These represent only a partial selection of areas looked at by truly thorough handicappers. Are you willing to compile and measure all these factors - and more before placing horse system wagers?
If you are willing, are you actually able to get the data, put it into a useful form to aid your decision, all in time to place your bets? Perhaps. But when I looked at the staggering load of information, much of it changing daily, or even hourly....well frankly, I balked at the task.
I'm not sure where this puts you, but to me the conclusion was obvious. Either do a little basic handicapping and pick horses for fun, with the hope that I would either break even or drop only a small budgeted amount (like a trip to the casino) or get serious and utilize a horse system by 'partnering' up with one of the organizations that had the ability to get ALL the information, collate it, and make it available in a timely manner and a usable format.
Are these tip companies for you? Not unless you have a serious intention of treating horse race betting more like a business than an exciting pastime. Race track wagering can either be a light decision or a serious one. Serious bettors use a horse betting system to improve the number and amounts of wins. Do you find your thrill on the home stretch with everyone screaming for their horse? Or while you find that exciting do you get your genuine thrills when collecting at the cashier's window?
Common 'wisdom' says there is simply no way of using a horse system to beat the odds or the odds makers. Everyone will tell you it can't be done. Has it occurred to you - the odds makers start from the same place we do? The data is the same for anyone that has it in their hands. What is the edge they have, is it skill? Is it wisdom? Or is it simply a matter of putting the right tool to the job and using all available resources for your choices using system wagering?
We do not have to be better than the odds makers, only on par with them. To win significant profits we do not have to beat the pros at handicapping. Remember, Pari-mutuel wagering means that no matter how you bet on a horse, you are betting against the other people placing bets - not against the house (like in a casino) and not against the pros themselves. That knowledge and a good horse system will bring home the bucks.
It's like the old story of the campers and the bear.
Two campers are walking through the forest when they suddenly encounter a grizzly bear. The bear rears up on his hind legs and lets out a terrifying roar. Both campers are frozen in their tracks.
The first camper whispers, "I'm sure glad I wore my running shoes today."
"It doesn't matter what kind of shoes you're wearing, you're not gonna outrun that bear," replies the second.
"I don't have to outrun the bear, I just have to outrun YOU," he answers.
We do not need to "outrun the bear" either. We only have to know and use our horse system intelligently. If you are willing to be among the very small percentage of race track bettors willing to invest a portion of your winnings into the services of a respected and proven tipster group, the size of those winnings will grow exponentially.
What other considerations are there? Stick around HorseSystem.Info - read and study to investigate for yourself. Then your knowledge of horse system wagering will take you where you want to go.